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Does Euro Adoption Reduce Central Bank Staff?
Žídeková, Lucia ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Fanta, Nicolas (referee)
The thesis examined the impact of euro adoption and joining the EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) on central bank staff using the synthetic control method. The first part of the work focused on assembling a data set on personnel development and proposing predictors for approximating central bank size. In the second part, the study presents the models and results, revealing a significant decrease in the number of employees at Latvijas Banka after joining ERM II. However, the research encountered limitations due to data unavailability, possible shocks experienced by donor pool countries, and poor fit of pre-intervention characteristics, leading to ambiguous findings regarding the size and significance of the negative effect of euro adoption on personnel development for Latvijas Bank, the National Bank of Slovakia, and Eesti Pank. The reliability of the results for the National Bank of Belgium and the Bank of Finland was affected by a short pre-intervention period and the risk of over-fitting.
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Analysis of the Effects of Sri Lankan 1977 External Economic Liberalization Policy on Foreign Direct Investment
Tennakoon, Senya Nimsari ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
The Synthetic Control Method (SCM) provides the comparative case-study evaluation on Sri Lanka and other 18 countries in this research paper. The external economic liberalization policy implemented in 1977 has significant changes in the Inward Foreign Direct Investments in the state. Focusing on the 18 countries, the methodology is being carried out comparing the Inward Foreign Direct Investment towards the level of countries without similar pre- treatment characteristics and liberalization policy effect. The final results show that there is a positive impact of the inward foreign direct investments towards the economic growth through the external economic liberalization policy. Additionally, we identified global and domestic economic shocks affecting the late 20th century international trade and foreign direct investments. The methodology performed successfully through a gradual increase in foreign direct investments in the results which was developed towards the policy suggestions.
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The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Russo-Ukrainian War
Hamráková, Júlia ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Bauer, Michal (referee)
Since 2014, an armed conflict between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian army in Donbas has been causing damage to the society, infrastructure, and eco- nomics of Ukraine. This thesis deals with the conflict in eastern Ukraine and focuses on its economic impact in the period from 2014 to 2020. Using the syn- thetic control method and the augmented synthetic control method, on a country level we evaluate the economic cost of the conflict in terms of the GDP per capita of Ukraine and Russia. On the regional level, we estimate the impact of the con- flict on the GRP per capita of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Moreover, we look for evidence of spillover effect on neighbouring Dnipropetrovsk region and Kharkiv region in Ukraine and Krasnodar Krai, Belgorod Oblast, and Rostov Oblast in the Russian Federation. While the results indicate a significant gap in GDP per capita of Ukraine attributable to the war, the negative economic effect on the GDP per capita of the Russian Federation after accounting for the price drop of crude oil in 2014 and 2015 is only minor and too insignificant to interpret it with confidence. The findings further suggest a destroying effect of the conflict on GRP per capita of both Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The spillover effect of the war on neighbouring regional...
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Impact of Potential EU Membership on Economy of Ukraine
Jascuk, Milana ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Šťastná, Lenka (referee)
Recently the topic of the future of Ukrainian economy has been attracting great attention among economists and politicians. The way how it should develop is widely discussed on the international arena. Economists and politicians cannot reach an agreement to which direction it is better to move for Ukraine. Nowadays a lot of special institutions has been created on both sides: in Ukraine and in Europe. The main goal of those is to control all the processes of transformation to be transparent on all levels; as well as prevent unlikely events. Of course, there are proponents and opponents of the moving to the free trade with the EU as for every global process. Among the young generation it is very clear, that possibilities, which gives us European Union are much more valuable and gainful. Even now, majority of students, researchers seek to apply their knowledge or gain some knowledge in European countries. I try to determine potential impact on Economy of Ukraine assuming integration to European Union. It is very important to consider both threats and benefits of such processes as they are taking place on very high level. Therefor in this work I will consider both contours of development for Economy of Ukraine. To explore it I have applied the synthetic control method, which gives us opportunity to...
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Impact of Potential EU Membership on Economy of Ukraine
Jascuk, Milana ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Recently the topic of the future of Ukrainian economy has been attracting great attention among economists and politicians. The way how it should develop is widely discussed on the international arena. Economists and politicians cannot reach an agreement to which direction it is better to move for Ukraine. Nowadays a lot of special institutions have been created on both sides: in Ukraine and in Europe. The main goal of those is to control all the processes of transformation to be transparent on all levels; as well as prevent unlikely events. Of course, there are proponents and opponents of the moving to the free trade with the EU as for every global process. Among the young generation it is very clear, that possibilities, which gives us European Union are much more valuable and gainful. Even now, majority of students and researchers seek to apply or acquire some knowledge in European countries. I'm not an exception and for this reason, being a representative of young generation, I will try to determine potential impact on Economy of Ukraine assuming integration to European Union. It is very important to consider both threats and benefits of such processes as they are taking place on very high level. Therefore, in this work it will be considered both contours of development for Economy of Ukraine....
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The impact of the Euro on German economy
Krották, Viliam ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Debatz, Laure (referee)
This master thesis analyses the impact of the euro on the German economy. The research is conducted through the examination of German export, GDP level, and labor market. It is also supplemented with the evaluation of the past, current and future stages of the Eurozone. The thesis provides a detailed theoretical background, which explains the motivation for the creation of a common currency. As a tool to prove the validity of my hypotheses I use the synthetic control method, where I model a hypothetical case, in which Germany did not adopt the euro. The validity of my results will be tested by using the confidence intervals and comparing the RMSPE ratio. By using this unique approach, I aim to contribute to the series of academic papers about the validity of the euro. In my research I have come to the conclusion, that the euro has positively influenced Germany's economy.
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Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe
Janota, Martin ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe Abstract This thesis estimates the effect of Euro adoption on newest Eurozone members using synthetic control method. The effect is estimated on income per capita and GDP growth. Estimates indicate overall indecisive effect for Slovakia and Malta, neutral effect for Estonia and negative effect for Slovenia and Cyprus. The cost of Euro for Cyprus is estimated to be as high as 1/3 of GDP per capita. In some cases the direction of the effect changed before and after the financial crisis. The quality of inference suffers from low number of observations. Methodological assumptions are discussed, concluding that quality of Eastern European time series likely causes substantial bias in the results.
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Evaluating Economic Policy Using the Synthetic Control Method
Opatrný, Matěj ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Ščasný, Milan (referee) ; Tremewan, James (referee) ; Caselli, Francesca G. (referee)
The doctoral thesis consists of three essays that address the application of synthetic control method to various economic policy intervention. In the first essay I evaluate the quantitative effects of the Czech National Bank's commitment to keep the Koruna from appreciating that were put in place in 2013. I find that the commitment helped decrease unemployment substantially. The effect on overall output is also strongly positive, almost 2 percentage points for growth in 2015. The effect of the commitment on inflation is positive but not statistically significant at standard levels. In the second essay I focus on the impact of joining the EU on the Czech agriculture. The results show that the Czech Republic would have had a higher food index if it had not entered the CAM and CAP. Moreover, I show that the CAP and CAM had different impacts on farms in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, which have the most comparable agriculture according to the results of the synthetic control method. In the final essay I estimate how the UK financial markets would have evolved if the Remain camp had won the referendum. The results suggest that there would not have been any significant change in the development of the FTSE 100 Index in the medium to long term if there had not been a referendum. On the other hand, I...
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The Impact of Political Determinants on Economic Growth : Analysis of AKP Era
Küçükkayıkcı, Ceren ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
1 Master Thesis Proposal Institute of Political Studies, IEPS programme Faculty of Social Sciences Charles University in Prague Date: 16.10.2020 Author: Ceren Küçükkayıkcı Supervisor: doc. Ing. Tomas Cahlik, CSc. E-mail: 91064497@fsv.cuni.cz E-mail: cahlik@fsv.cuni.cz Phone: +420773924728 Phone: Specialisation: IEPS Defense Planned: September 2021 Proposed Topic: The Impact of Political Determinants on Economic Growth : Analysis of AKP Era Registered in SIS: Yes Date of registration: 30.05.2019 (in case of No give an expected date) Topic characteristics / Research Question(s): The general question of this thesis is how the change in political determinants have an impact on economic growth in Turkey during the AKP era between 2002 and 2019. We would like to demonstrate the reason for the economic failure of AKP in line with the political and economic institutions and political and civil rights. AKP era will be analyzed into three sections, which are 2003-2007, 2007-2011, and 2011 and 2019. Economic growth will be measured by GDP per capita. Working hypotheses: 1. Hypothesis #1: There is an indirect relationship between political determinants and economic growth. 2. Hypothesis#2: Economic institutions and political institutions are endogenous and are defined by the collective choice of society. 2 3....
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The Effects of Electronic Records of Sales: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis
Besedová, Monika ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to analyze the impact of the electronic records of sales (ERS) implemented on December 1, 2016, in the Czech Republic. The ERS orders given entrepreneurs to use special cash boxes and to send data about single sales to the Financial Authority immediately after each transaction. Experience shows that the ERS reduced tax evasion and the shadow economy. This thesis fills a gap in literature as no study has yet examined the impact of ERS on macroeconomic variables - gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, unemployment rate and harmonized consumer price index (HCPI). To analyze it, I apply SCM by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), Abadie et al. (2010) and Abadie et al. (2015) that proposes the way how to evaluate the impact of political interventions using a quantitative approach. Using data from the Eurostat and OECD databases from Q1 2004-Q3 2019, the method allows me to construct a counterfactual outcome for GDP per capita, unemployment rate and HCPI in the absence of the implementation of the ERS. I also apply the extension of original SCM - generalize synthetic control method by Xu (2017) and augmented synthetic control method by Ben-Michael et al. (2018) as robustness checks. Moreover, the interference procedures include the modified confidence interval by Firpo and Possebom...
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